Personal Reflections on COVID 19

 Should we seek to eliminate the risk of all physical harm?

We assess risk all the time; it is one of the things that makes us sentient beings.  We weigh up risks against each other, we calculate the risk of doing against the risk of not doing.  If we thought it was desirable to eliminate all risk, we would never get in a car, drink alcohol or play sport.  We could not live in cities because of the pollution but we could not live in the countryside because of the pesticides that are sprayed on the fields.  So how would we live if we sought to eliminate the risk of all physical harm?  We would stay within four walls most likely (well ventilated),  we would take a certain amount of steps a day (in circles) and we would eat only organic, plant-based food.  But it is easy to see the cost of removing all risk of physical harm.  We would be bored out of our minds, out of our four walls.  We would become depressed; our depression would manifest as lethargy, we would have no reason to get out of bed in the morning.  Far from thriving, we would not live long, healthy lives.  We would not be living at all.

At the beginning of this year we started to hear news of a virus of the Corona ('Flu') genus spreading through China.  By the beginning of April we were in national lockdown and I was in A & E with my four year old daughter.  She had the temperature and cough that three other family members, including myself, had suffered before her but in coughing so much, she had burst a blood vessel in her throat.  If you have never witnessed the amount of blood generated by a burst blood vessel, you would probably be as horrified as I was when she started bringing up huge clots into my useless, waiting hands.  However, the doctor in A & E was not overly concerned.  Believe it or not, this is a reasonably common occurrence when somebody is coughing a lot.  The doctor was in no doubt, "It's COVID,"  she asserted; although at that time, inexplicably, our country was not testing symptomatic people, so we cannot know for sure if the five members of our family of seven who experienced symptoms actually had the virus.  What we do know is that we are all well, even with our hair-raising trip to A & E in April, we have never been prescribed drugs or been admitted to hospital because of our suspected COVID symptoms.  And this is the reality of the risk posed by COVID for the vast majority of people.  Just like seasonal flu, COVID poses a particular risk to the elderly and vulnerable.  The average age of death from COVID is 82.  Of course, we are also hearing about so-called Long COVID which is a particularly frightening prospect because we understand so little about it.  Even so, the risk to the healthy remains small.

The lockdown in which we found ourselves through April, May and June was an attempt, as I saw it, to protect our health system from being overwhelmed by COVID cases.  We have a health system funded by the tax-payer, free at point of need, and so, if it is overwhelmed by the virus, that means that cancer patients, maternity wards, A & E departments would all be potentially damaged by a struggling NHS.  The first lockdown should have been about steeling the NHS; building new hospitals, recruiting more staff and acquiring more ventilators and PPE.  Despite the catastrophic damage to the economy of the first lockdown, it seemed a reasonable trade-off.  

However, we are now in December and fast-approaching Christmas and a brave new year.  Most of the country endures Tier 3 restrictions.  Our restaurants and hotels remain closed until further notice.  Stratford-upon-Avon finds itself in Tier 3, despite having infection rates lower than parts of Cornwall which remains in Tier 1.  Stratford is the fourth most damaged economy in the UK, which should come as no surprise, dependent as it is on the tourism, hospitality and catering industries.  That is a lot of people, young and at no real risk from COVID themselves, out of work and therefore not contributing to the economy and thus, the NHS.  A lot of the businesses for which they work, particularly small businesses, will not make it into the new year.  Did anybody ask this generation of young workers which risk they prefer?  The risk to their health and that of their elderly relatives, or the risk to their financial futures for many years to come.  They are a generation already disadvantaged by high property prices because each and every government seeks to keep inflated our precarious property bubble, not wanting it to pop on their watch but never addressing the root of the problem.  They are a generation that must pay £9,000 a year in tuition fees in order to gain a tertiary education but will then have to work for free or for below minimum wage on spurious internships simply in order to add something of value to their meagre CVs because the jobs aren't there.  And now, we have given them a recession  the likes of which we have not seen since we won the Second World War and had to rebuild our economy and country.  Poverty is another risk we might consider; it kills the vulnerable as well.

Now that we have started our programme of vaccination, it seems imperative that we return to some kind of normal.  But we are not.  The scientists warn us that the effects of the vaccine are not fully understood.  How immune will somebody be after one shot, after two?  What if the virus mutates?  The natural world is  full of these as yet unknown outcomes but again, we can make some sound assumptions; we usually do.  We assume that the sun will rise every day.  We carry on as if it will because it would take far too much time and energy to prepare each evening for a different outcome.  It would be counter-productive anyway. But it is indicative of the political environment of caution that we now inhabit, that the long-awaited vaccine is not propelling us back towards a fully functioning work-force or even education system.  The wearing of masks in public places is no great infringement of liberty; some people, I predict, will continue the mask-wearing long after the need prevails.  The elderly and vulnerable may need to shield for sometime to come and hand-washing is a good habit to have become fastidious about.  But to cripple our economy in order to achieve the impossible and eliminate all risk from COVID, this is safeguarding with catastrophic economic risks.  

2020

The house had not been lived in for years and no maintenance carried out for just as long. It was falling down.  The house was freezing.  An estate agent might have said, “Has potential.”  But I couldn’t see the potential myself; the re-wiring alone seemed an impossible task.  In fact, I didn’t think it mattered if the house fell down.  In some ways, I thought it might be better for everyone if the house fell down because then nobody need be responsible for the house.  But one day, I realised that the house was still providing shelter for some; what would happen if it wasn’t there anymore?  Worse still, what if it came down when others were inside and were damaged in the process.  It wasn’t just a vainglorious project.  I started to see the potential.  Perhaps the house could be strong again; could be an inviting place where people wanted to be, where people felt happy and protected.

 

The task was massive though. Where to start?  It was hard to remember at times what needed to be done and in what order.  Real change is so hard to achieve.  It is not just a case of repainting the kitchen walls a bright colour and hoping then that everyone likes to be in the kitchen, hoping that they don’t notice that those same walls are crumbling and need re-plastering.  Real change takes consistent effort every day.  It means that maybe all the walls need to come down and be re-built from the ground up.  Choosing the colour of the paint is a long way off.

 

First, the house needs to be made secure because it has not been in the past; anyone has been able to come in and take what they want; to come in and take up residence and turn away the neighbours when they wanted to help.  But in making the house secure, it is important that the right people still have access.  The right people need to be given the key code so that they can come in and start to help with the rebuilding.

 

The attic has been neglected for a long time and will need to be thoroughly cleared.  It is frightening to think what might be up there. But you only have to look once in order to know what you’re up against.  Once you’ve looked and processed the work that is involved, it can’t shock you again. It’s not going anywhere, you can take your time and get a skip; pass some things on, make sure anything of value is stowed away safely and not thrown out with the rubbish.

 

The real challenge is the roof.  It needs completely replacing.  And there is such a temptation to do a botch job that could see you through the next couple of years.  But you’d never be happy.  You’d look up and be reminded of how strong the roof could be.  And you’d know that the time would come when the whole thing had to be replaced, probably because it would be threatening to fall in again. But then the negative voices start their campaign of doubt.  They say, but what if a hurricane comes when the roof is off?  The house will never withstand a hurricane without a roof; the risk is huge.  It’s true that whilst the roof is being repaired, the house is temporarily weakened. But in its current state, can the house withstand a hurricane?  It’s not guaranteed.  But imagine when that new, strong roof is in place.  Imagine what the house can withstand then; imagine how strong it will be. Keep thinking about that; there is nothing to lose.  Sure, you might need some scaffolding whilst the roof is being replaced and the neighbours will need to be particularly understanding but you can pay them back later; they will be so pleased that the house is finally standing firm and not being looted all the time.

 

Finally, when the house stands strong again, the decoration can be chosen.  Perhaps I will not want the bright colours, perhaps I will not want to cover the walls in art.  Perhaps I will be happy for the raw materials of the building to be on display, perhaps the very strength of the new building becomes its own beauty.  Or perhaps I will paint the kitchen orange.  It will be my choice.  The house will be so warm.